By now you have probably read a zillion draw analyses of the upcoming Australian Open. Here’s one more to add to your list. In a very simple form, this analysis will look at the top 4 seeds relative to their quarters of the draw, along with a few random observations along the way.
- Novak Djokovic: Djokovic wasn’t gifted a super easy path to his predicted quarter-final matchup with Spain’s David Ferrer. His first 2 rounds should be routine enough, against Paolo Lorenzi of Italy and Colombian Santiago Giraldo. Giraldo has been playing good tennis of late and has had some good results in the last 15 months, but in the 2nd round of a Slam, he’ll only serve to give Djokovic a test for a set. Look for the Serb to cruise into a potential 3rd round match with veteran Radek Stepanek. Again, the cagey Czech, who has been around the block and won’t be intimidated by the stage, will be able to hang around for awhile, but will not bring nearly enough firepower to the battle. Which could set up a R16 match that could prove one of the most entertaining of the entire fortnight: young big serving Canadian Milos Raonic vs. Novak Djokovic for a spot in the quarter-finals. This will be the true popcorn match of this quarter. In previous years, prior to 2011, we may have seen Djokovic grow increasingly frustrated as Raonic pounded one ace after another. But in 2011, Djokovic proved time and again that all aspects of his game were much improved, including what some had previously perceived as some cracks in his mental toughness. Look for Djokovic to weather the barrage of big Raonic serves and make it safely to the quarter-finals in his section of the draw.
Random thoughts on quarter #1: Poor Andy Roddick. He had a good showing at last year’s US Open after a spotty season up until then. Yeah, he kept his streak alive by winning Memphis, but completely disappeared from the European clay events (literally), and saw his ranking drop into the 20s for a time. Well, the Australian Open will not be the elixir for which he was searching. The young talented Dutchman Robin Haase awaits in the 1st round, the hometown hero and veteran Lleyton Hewitt in round 2, and if he makes it through both of those matches intact, Raonic will most likely be waiting to send him packing back to the States.
David Ferrer probably has the easiest path to the quarter-finals than any other player in the top eight. He could see a little challenge from Janko Tipsarevic or Richard Gasquet, but the Spaniard is playing well, and should cruise into the quarter-finals. Where, of course, he’ll face Djokovic {more on that in week 2 analysis}.
- Rafael Nadal: There has been a lot of talk surrounding the state of Rafa’s health, particularly regarding his shoulder, in the run-up to Melbourne. Rafa usually is able to push physical ailments into the background during Grand Slams, but I think this year will be different. Yes, Nadal is the only of the top four seeds that I don’t think will reach the quarter-finals. I’m not going to predict an earth-shattering early round upset of Nadal, mainly because I don’t see a player in his early draw that could pull that off (Kuznetsov, Kuda or Hass). The possible round 3 match with Ljubicic could provide a test and certainly some tense moments, but I see Rafa advancing into the Round of 16, where one of two players will end Nadal’s run for a second Australian Open title. In a possible round 3 cracker, American John Isner and Spaniard Feliciano Lopez will play for the right to oust Rafa. I think either of these two guys (Lopez or Isner) gets the job done this year and advance to their first Australian Open quarter-final. There will be lots of talk about Rafa’s health and physical state as he returns to Spain for an extended break before the US Masters 1000s in Indian Wells and Miami.
Random thoughts on quarter #2: In this quarter, I look for one of the bigger Round 1 upsets--though this one may not surprise everyone. Benoit Paire will take down No. 21 seed Stanislas Wawrinka. This match may not even be that close. Look for the talented young Frenchman to win in four sets.
It will be interesting to track the results of Grigor Dimitrov. The Bulgarian has been on everybody’s radar for awhile now, and despite flashes of brilliance (and a supremely entertaining match at Wimbledon with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga), he has so far come up shorter than his talent may suggest. He could find himself in a Round 3 tussle with Paire (yes, you have deduced I have no high hopes for Nico Almagro) for the right to play in the final sixteen.
I think Tomas Berdych will make it through to the quarter-finals as the No. 7 seed. The former Wimbledon finalist reached the quarter-finals last year in Australia (a career-best) and with a relatively easy path back (and the predicted absence of Rafa), he could be one of the 2012 semi-finalists.
- Roger Federer: Personally, I have a hard time with all the “Fed is in decline” talk. I think Federer made his thoughts known on the subject by winning the Paris indoors and the World Tour Finals at the end of last year. Assuming his back is healthy, which he claims is the case, there is no reason Federer cannot win a Slam this year, including the Australian Open. There will be some tests along the way, no doubt, but I believe Roger will ultimately end up in the quarter-finals, setting up a classic with Juan Martin Del Potro. Federer may have to deal with big server like Ivo Karlovic or the young Aussie phenom Bernard Tomic or the tricky Alexandr Dolgopolov, but the experience of Federer should get him by all three of these guys. {If Tomic makes a run to the Round of 16 and matches up with Federer, good luck getting a seat at the stadium; this will be one of the most hyped matches in Australia since the heyday of Hewitt}. I would be surprised if Federer were not still alive when the quarter-finals come calling.
Random thoughts on quarter #3: This could be the most interesting quarter. There are some juicy Round 1 matches (Fish-Muller, Verdasco-Tomic, Monaco-Kohlschreiber, Melzer-Karlovic).
You’ve got to think that both Mardy Fish and Del Potro would be disappointed with anything less than a quarter-final finish, so one of those guys will leave Australia disappointed. They have a possible Round of 16 date. Del Potro has been throwing wrenches into draws during his entire comeback. He’s not the guy you want to meet in the first week of a Slam.
It will be fun to watch Tomic. The Aussie teenager has talent to spare and is cool under fire. He seems to feel no pressure, but it will be interesting to see how he handles himself as the rounds get deeper and the competition becomes more elite.
- Andy Murray: Andy murray arrived in Australia under the tutelage of new full-time coach Ivan Lendl. Obviously, Lendl has all the credentials: former world No. 1, multiple Grand Slam champion, tireless worker, etc. But can he coach Murray and help him get that all-elusive Grand Slam title? That remains to be seen, but eventually Murray should win a Slam. Murray is in good form, having won the title in Brisbane, but his quarter is complicated. Potentially fatal land mines are everywhere. The top Brit should beat young American Ryan Harrison in Round 1, but Harrison has tons of talent and can’t be taken lightly. He may also have to navigate tricky matches with Belgian Xavier malisse and newly-minted Russian Alex Bogomolov, Jr. before a potential Round of 16 showdown with Gael Monfils. Monfils can be an enigma, but if he brings his A game and incredible athletic ability, this could also be an instant classic. I think Murray will be around for the quarter-finals. But that will most likely bring another titanic struggle.
Random thoughts on quarter #4: Obviously, the other major contender from this quarter is Tsonga. The Frenchman seems on the cusp of breaking through with a mammoth result, which could include winning a Slam in 2012. He has enjoyed success in Australia, having reached the final in 2008 in his first big splash on the world stage--a place he’s been ever since. Tsonga may have to deal with a few speed bumps along the way, but again, I’d be very surprised if we aren’t treated to a Murray-Tsonga quarter-final.
This quarter of the draw could also produce another Round 1 seeded casualty. It would be no surprise of Juan Carlos Ferrero took out No. 19 seed Viktor Troicki. The Serb has been inconsistent of late, to say the least, and is primed for an early exit in Melbourne.
It would be nice to see Kei Nishikori win a few rounds in a Grand Slam. The top Japanese player on tour has made leaps and bounds over the past year, and is an all-around nice guy. He could meet Gilles Simon in Round 3 and possibly Tsonga in Round of 16 if he makes it that far.
My quarter-final predicted match-ups: (1) Djokovic vs. (5) Ferrer; (4) Murray vs. (6) Tsonga; (3) Federer vs. (11) Del Potro; (7) Berdych vs. (16) Isner
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